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Gazprom expects natural gas to remain high

 Gazprom expects that the export price of natural gas to Europe will remain high in 2022, and the company's management believes that the average price will not be lower than this year. This means that in 2022, Gazprom may obtain a record export revenue of far overseas natural gas, close to US $60 billion. But this prediction is risky. Gazprom's management is optimistic about the surge in global natural gas prices. The company expects that the average export price to Europe in 2022 will not be lower than this year. In August this year, Gazprom predicted that the average export price in 2021 was 270 US dollars / thousand cubic meters, but then revised the forecast. Andrey zotov, deputy manager of Gazprom, said at the teleconference of the company's report from January to September that the average export price in the fourth quarter is expected to be $550, which may be the highest quarterly export price in Gazprom's history. In this case, the annual average export price may reach about US $320, the highest level since 2014. Therefore, in 2022, Gazprom may obtain record overseas export revenue. If the supply to Europe remains at the level of about 180 billion cubic meters per year (Gazprom forecasts 183 billion cubic meters this year), the sales revenue will reach US $57.6 billion, compared with us $52.9 billion in 2013. In addition, this amount does not include the expanding gas supply to China through the "Siberian power" pipeline, which plans to export 15 billion cubic meters in 2022. However, the export price to China is linked to the oil price, which is far lower than the current average price of natural gas in the Russian gas contract portfolio. The main risk is a decline in gas demand in Europe, as many industrial consumers and power plants cannot afford gas at current prices. Dutch TTF natural gas futures in December closed Monday, with prices rising 8% to US $1150 / thousand cubic meters. Alexander ivannikov, head of the Ministry of Finance and economy of Gazprom, said that compared with 2020, the gas production in European reservoirs under the Gazprom contract decreased by 6% in the third quarter. He said: "I note that the share of Russian gas in the European market remains stable, which can only illustrate the fact that the trend of reducing European natural gas imports is market-wide."

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